Silver price bounces back
by Metals Place
Thursday, March 11, 2010

Silver is showing it’s still very much tied to gold, tracking the yellow metal down on price chopping news out of China, the oil trade and the currency markets. On Tuesday, gold fell as low as $1107.60 an ounce before rebounding later in the day to $1122.20.

Oil prices gave back almost 2 per cent of the last eight weeks’ gains on a stronger dollar and an anticipated increase in US crude inventories. Gold often follows oil bringing silver along for the ride.

The dollar grew strong as the euro weakened in the face of continuing debt concerns making commodities including gold and oil lose their luster.

“The euro is down and the dollar is up. Energy is down as well. So it’s making it real easy for the metals to come down,” said Patrick Lafferty, MF Global commodity trading adviser.

While the weak euro in relation to the dollar is pressuring precious metals prices, analysts view the ongoing debt crisis in the euro zone as price positive over the long-term.

China’s push back against rumours it’s looking to buy considerable gold supplies off the IMF also dampened gold’s shine.

“Gold is not a bad asset, but currently a few factors limit our ability to increase foreign-exchange investment in gold,” said Yi Gang, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Those factors include the relatively small size of the market and the potential impact on price.

Silver’s industrial role still weighing on outlook

Despite the gold market’s heavy influence over precious metal silver’s price actions, many analysts still see the white metal’s industrial side having a major impact on the market over the long-term.

The industrial metals sector as a whole is expected to improve this year and next as global economic growth improves, although the going will be slow.

“We’re not expecting particularly strong growth in the world outside China, but we are forecasting global growth will move from a decline of 1 per cent in 2009 to a gain of 3.7 per cent in 2010. That’s a strong inflection point,” said Bart Melek, global commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

Casimir Capital research director Wayne Atwell expects a strong metals market over the next decade, but investors should still expect some “speed bumps” along the way.

RBC Capital Markets recently gave its perspective on the short- to medium-term silver market. Its analysts expect silver’s fundamentals to remain positive as industrial and investment demand increase and outpace new mine supply in 2010. RBC puts its average silver price forecast at $15 per ounce for 2010 and beyond.

In a recent interview with Resource Intelligence, Managing Director of CPM Group Jeffrey Christian showed his bullish side with a $20 to $22 an ounce silver forecast over the first four months of 2010 with an average price of $17 to $18 for the year.

Read more at http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/5577/silver-price-bounces-back-5577.html